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I was recently asked by a colleague if there have been any recent reports, or articles, making predictions for what is to be expected in 2017. Inside Higher Ed just posted their seven trends for higher education in 2017¹ - sliding enrollments, concerns about cost and access, questions about value, focus on careers and job placement, declining state support, collisions over campus climate, and the defense of academic freedom and free speech on US college campuses. A week prior, the PIE News also published a prediction piece² noting the rising influence of pathway programs, transnational education, crises in Europe, post-Brexit challenges, the election of Trump, ACT scandals, and employability concerns for international students. Such predictions provide an interesting method by which some may manage future expectations. Ezekiel J. Emanuel, PhD, the current vice provost for global initiatives at the University of Pennsylvania, was quoted in an interview with The Chronicle of Higher Education as stating:

...in general, I don’t think that academics’ best insights are in of-the-moment issues, trying to resolve what to do about the United States, for example, negotiating with Iran on the nuclear deal. Academics are best trying to look over the horizon. Politicians don’t have the time. Washington-based think tanks are in the moment. Academics are better trying to anticipate the future.³

So, are academics better than politicians at anticipating future events? I'm usually hesitant about offering advice or opinions because I feel it is an effort in futility to try to predict the future (my Magic 8 ball responded that I should "positively" write this blog post though). This is, undoubtedly, because of my experiences as a graduate and post-graduate where I was always told to couch any definitive statements with more tentative terminology (i.e. changing "this will" to "this may", "could have affected", "should be expected", etc). Ultimately, while I can look at past data to predict future trends, there are always outside factors that may or may not influence the final results; thereby, resulting in an endless series of what-ifs. However, given my mandate to focus on both domestic and international issues in relation to education (and international higher education specifically), I decided to write my own thought piece on what may, or may not, happen in 2017. I welcome others to provide further commentary and opinions in the comments section below.

BIG PICTURE - Politics
2016 brought about two major political changes in the western world - the Brexit referendum vote in the United Kingdom and the U.S. presidential election of Donald Trump. The polls predicted different outcomes. They were wrong. The United Kingdom is now in the process of figuring out all the details of how to leave the European Union, with questions remaining of how this will affect students, scholars, economics, and social policies. The visa changes enacted by the UKBA back in 2011 made it more difficult for international students to apply to study in the UK and also significantly limited the possibility for post-study work options, resulting in a noticeable decline in enrollments since 2010 which had been rising steadily up to that point; while numbers have not rebounded, the largest deficit shows 11500 fewer international students enrolled in British higher education institutions in 2012 (post-reform) when compared with 2010 (pre-reform)⁴. Now, with Brexit, many international students feel more unwelcome and consider the UK a less desirable study destination⁵ and some researchers based at institutions in the UK have reported being dropped from EU-funded projects with colleagues⁶. The long-term effects are still unknown.

CHECKING NUMBERS - Student mobility in and out of the USA
I mention Brexit and the US Presidential Election because the USA and the UK have led the world as the top destinations for incoming students. The 2016 Open Doors Report⁷, released last November, showed that over 1 million international students came to study in the USA in 2015/16 (a 7.1% increase from 2014/15). The report also showed that over 313,000 students from US higher education institutions studied abroad in 2014/15 (a 2.9% increase from 2013/14). It could be expected that these numbers will continue to rise. Both study abroad participation and international student enrollments have more than doubled over the past 15 years, even though study abroad rates seem to rise much steadier than the sharp increases of international student enrollments (see chart below).


However, a new administration means new policies and practices which can directly affect the international education community. The events of 9/11 and the policies enacted under George W. Bush each served to (temporarily) deter international students from coming to the USA to study. By contrast, Obama took a different approach to international affairs than his predecessor⁸ and enacted various initiatives opening up education exchange opportunities in Latin America and China (i.e., 100,000 Strong Educational Exchange Initiatives⁹). Ultimately, it takes a while for the data to catch up to speculation; although, recent surveys of international students indicate more concerns and an increased feeling the US is less desirable as a place to study following the election of Trump⁵. Given the ongoing confirmation hearings¹⁰ for cabinet positions, it is unsure what the next year (or four) will bring.

RESEARCH & ADVOCACY - Our roles
One tenet in the general ethos of education is the need to broaden the mind and engage in new experiences. Aristotle is quoted as saying, "It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it." However, the need for active listening in order to engage in open and respectful debate with others has arguably never been greater (see previous Research Connections discussion thread on Hot topics - Continuing civil discussions). Most likely, the debates regarding freedom of speech and safe spaces¹¹ will continue alongside those of self-segregation¹² and the continued need to address various social inequalities¹³. Colleges and universities will probably continue to struggle with issues of enrollment, engagement, retention, and completion rates of their students¹. While universities seek to serve increasingly diverse student populations, there has been increased scholarly interest paid to exploring and challenging the status quo - questioning the global rankings systems¹⁴, increasing faculty diversity¹⁵, providing adequate mental health resources on campus with high rates of anxiety and depression¹⁶, improving the admissions process for low income students¹⁷, recognizing the social capital of rural students¹⁸, assessing outcomes in comparison with employability metrics¹⁹, etc.


SUMMARY - What can we do?
Researchers and scholars each have their own areas of interest and expertise. Given that it takes a while for data to come in, get reports written, and go through the whole publishing process, it could be that we will be waiting a while to see research that would be considered "current". However, there are a number of upcoming opportunities by which we can demonstrate and/or support continued dedication to the field by expanding theories, improving practices, and educating future professionals.

1. Submit a proposal and/or plan on attending the NAFSA Research Symposium on April 7, 2017. (Find out more at www.nafsa.org/researchsymposium)
2. Submit a book review to the Global Studies Literature Review. (Call for contributions has been extended - www.nafsa.org/GSLreview) 
3. Nominate a colleague (or yourself) for the TLS Innovative Research in International Education Award by February 13, 2017. (Read the nomination criteria on the TLS page)
4. Learn more about big data analytics and assessing global learning with upcoming discussions in the Architecture for Global Learning series (Learn more and register on NAFSA's website)
5. Become more involved through NAFSA's knowledge communities, advocacy day, colloquia, seminars, annual and regional conferences, as well as contributing to discussions on network.NAFSA.

References

¹ Rudgers, Lisa M., and Julie A. Peterson. Coming in 2017. Inside Higher Ed, Views, 13 January 2017.   Link
² Custer, Sara. 2017. What to look for in international education in 2017. The PIE News, Analysis, 6 January 2017.   Link 
³ Fischer, Karin. 2017. 'You have to understand the world in which you live'. The Chronicle of Higher Education, The Chronicle Interview, 6 January 2017.  Link
⁴ Conlon, Gavan, Rohit Ladher, and Maike Halterbeck. 2017. The determinants of international demand for UK higher education. Final report for the Higher Education Policy Institute and Kaplan International Pathways. London: HEPI. Link
⁵ Red Brick Research. 2017. The Brexit effect: An international perspective on the student experience. London: Red Brick.   Link
⁶ Sample, Ian. 2016. UK scientists dropped from EU projects because of post-Brexit funding fears. The Guardian, Research Funding, 11 July 2016.   Link
⁷ Institute of International Education. 2016. Open Doors 2016. Washington, DC: IIE.   Link
⁸ Dimock, Michael. 2017. How America changed during Barack Obama's presidency. Pew Research Center, 10 January 2017.   Link
⁹ U.S. Department of State. 2017. 100,000 Strong Educational Exchange Initiatives.   Link
¹⁰ New York Times. 2017. Donald Trump's cabinet is taking shape. Here's the latest list. Politics. 13 January 2017.   Link
¹¹ PEN America. 2016. And campus for all: Diversity, inclusion, and freedom of speech at U.S. universities. New York: PEN America.   Link
¹² Jayakumar, Uma M. 2015. Why are all the black students still sitting together in the proverbial college cafeteria? A look at research informing the figurative question being taken by the Supreme Court in Fisher. HERI Research Brief. Los Angeles, CA: Higher Education Research Institute (HERI).   Link
¹³ Jones, Gavin W., and Divya S. Ramchand. 2016. Closing the gender and socio-economic gaps in educational attainment: A need to refocus. Journal of International Development, 28(6), pp. 953-973.   Link
¹⁴ Altbach, Philip G., and Ellen Hazelkorn. 2017. Why most universities should quit the rankings game. University World News, Global Edition, 8 January 2017.   Link
¹⁵ Finkelstein, Martin J., Valerie Martin Conley, and Jack H. Schuster. 2016. Taking the measure of faculty diversity. Advancing Higher Education, April 2016. New York: TIAA Institute.   Link
¹⁶ Center for Collegiate Mental Health. 2017. 2016 Annual Report (Publication No. STA 17-74). University Park, PA: Penn State University, Center for Collegiate Mental Health.   Link
¹⁷ Giancola, Jennifer, and Richard D. Kahlenberg. 2016. True merit: Ensuring our brightest students have access to our best colleges and universities. Landsdowne, VA: Jack Kent Cooke Foundation.   Link
¹⁸ Nelson, Ingrid A. 2016. Rural students' social capital in the college search and application process. Rural Sociology, 81(2), pp. 249-281.   Link
¹⁹ OECD. 2016. Attainment and labour market outcomes among young tertiary graduates. Paris: OECD Publishing.   Link